Polls pointed to a narrow lead for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The count on Sunday night said otherwise. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in Brazil’s presidential vote, and the two men now go to a runoff on 25 October.
The numbers
With 99.96% of polling stations counted, Bolsonaro had 47.04% of valid votes, or 56,098,129 ballots, and Lula had 45.15%, or 53,845,563, according to figures from the electoral court (TSE) as reported by Rio Times. Neither reached the 50% needed to win outright. The remaining stations could not change that.
The result ran against the surveys. According to NBC News, private polls before the vote had forecast Lula leading the first round by about three points. Datafolha’s final survey had put Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42% of valid votes, while Quaest showed a nearly level race, per one report.
Early returns were more favourable to Bolsonaro. NBC noted that southern states leaning his way reported faster, while votes from Lula’s stronghold in the northeast came in more slowly. His lead narrowed as the night went on, from about 48.5% at roughly 85% counted to the final figure.
What each side said
Lula, who is 80 and seeking a fourth term, admitted he had not expected the outcome. CNN quoted him telling supporters in São Paulo: “I confess I was convinced I would win the election in the first round.” He said a new campaign begins Monday, and, according to the Latin Times, said he is good at knockout rounds. He also described his opponent’s background as a “dark past”, NPR reported.
Bolsonaro, 45, read the result as a mandate. NPR quoted him saying it was “the end of the Workers’ Party era”. He has pledged to carry on his father’s legacy. Jair Bolsonaro was sentenced to 27 years over a coup plot.
São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas, an ally, called Flávio’s showing extraordinary and said São Paulo would be decisive in the runoff, the Latin Times reported.
Why the runoff is hard to call
Lula’s side has reason to hope. The northeast remains his base: according to Rio Times, he won Bahia with 66.1%, Pernambuco with 63.5% and Ceará with 63.3%. Bolsonaro carried Paraná and the Federal District. Lula has also won a runoff from behind before. In 2022 he beat Jair Bolsonaro 50.90% to 49.10%, the closest presidential result in Brazil’s history.
Bolsonaro’s side has arithmetic on its side. NPR noted that the candidates placed third, fourth and fifth were all on the right, which gives him a natural pool of voters to draw from. Surveys before Sunday showed the runoff roughly even, and the Latin Times described it as a statistical dead heat.
Turnout is a wild card. Rio Times reported abstention of 21.08%, the highest in a first round since 1998, with about 33.4 million absent voters, far more than the gap between the two candidates. Voting is compulsory in Brazil, and CNN described the campaign as one of voter fatigue, corruption scandals and deep polarisation.
Congress and Washington
Brazilians also elected governors, all 513 lower house members and two-thirds of the Senate. NPR reported early results showing significant gains for the right in Congress, particularly the Senate. That could give Bolsonaro a stronger base if he wins. Some senators have pushed to impeach Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, NBC noted.
The race also has an international side. CNN described Bolsonaro as an ally of US President Donald Trump, and NPR said Washington is watching closely. The runoff offers voters a clear choice over Brazil’s direction at home and abroad.
The TSE’s final tally will be published in the coming days. Both camps have 20 days to campaign.